World Wheat Market: Prices, Supply & What Moves Them

Last update: November 10, 2026 · Next update: expected November 23, 2026

At a glance

World: wheat production is down about 3% this season, but large stocks in the US and elsewhere keep the market comfortable.¹⁸
Black Sea: Russian wheat exports are forecast at a five-year low, because ports are running at reduced capacity.²
Price: Euronext milling wheat fell about €15–20/t in late October and now trades around €223–228/t.¹⁰
Belgium: winter wheat is sown and emerging; yield outlook fair, too early for quality. Belgium page →

Price indicator

Two benchmarks matter for Europe: Euronext milling wheat in Paris, the reference for baking wheat across Europe, and Chicago (CBOT) wheat, the world's most traded wheat price. Both cover all wheat, winter and spring alike. Neither is what a farmer receives, but local prices move with them.

Euronext milling wheat · Dec-26 €223–228/t ↘ about €15–20/t below mid-October¹⁰

Chicago (CBOT) wheat · early Nov ~$6.00/bushel Rebounded after a near four-month low on 4 November⁴

Physical wheat at Rouen port: €227.50/t on 2 November.¹¹ For conventional wheat, these are roughly market prices before transport, quality adjustments and margins; for regenerative or heritage grain, they are the reference that any premium is measured against.

World supply & demand

Production 2026/27 820 Mt −3% vs last season IGC, October¹

World trade 2026/27 209 Mt vs 226.9 Mt last season USDA, October²

Grain stocks, end of season 619 Mt −3%, all grains IGC, October¹

The IGC's price index for grains and oilseeds fell 3.5% from September to October, but remains almost 20% higher than a year ago.¹ The USDA's November report came out on 10 November and will be included in the next update.

What moves the price

The wheat price comes down to one question: is there more or less wheat available than buyers want? These are the forces at work right now.

Factor	What's happening	Pushes price
Black Sea shipping	Major grain terminals in Novorossiysk and Tuapse run at reduced capacity; alternative routes add only hundreds of thousands of tonnes a month.²	↗ up
Russian exports	USDA cut its forecast to 40 Mt, a five-year low.² SovEcon expects 36.7 Mt³; IKAR cut to 39.5 Mt in early November.⁴	↗ up
EU demand & stocks	Buyers turn to EU and French wheat as Russia ships less; the USDA cut its EU stock estimate by about 13% in a month.⁸	↗ up
World stocks	Still comfortable and higher than last year.⁸	↘ down
United States	Weak exports; USDA raised US ending stocks by 23 million bushels in October.⁹	↘ down
Southern hemisphere	Argentina and Australia harvest in December–January. Their production potential looks much better than expected after early fertilizer constraints and a strong El Niño.⁶ Australia raised its winter crop forecast by 12%.⁷ Argentina still expects less than last year's record.⁵	↘ down
Currency	A weaker euro against the dollar supported Euronext on 6 November.¹⁰	↗ up (in €)
Inputs	Disruptions in fuel and fertilizer supply from the Middle East conflict raised growing costs, for example in Australia.¹⁹	↗ longer term
Diplomacy	US-mediated talks between Ukraine and Russia on 10–11 November.⁴ A deal that reopens shipping would push prices down; escalation would push them up.	? wildcard

Our reading · provisional The world's surplus wins for now, even though Europe and the Black Sea are getting tighter. Quality barely earns extra this season: there is plenty of decent wheat.¹⁸

What would change the picture: the outcome of the Black Sea talks, the size of the Argentine and Australian harvests, a pick-up in US exports, and how much less wheat the northern hemisphere sows for 2027.

Major price moves this season

When	What happened	Reported cause
Early Sep	Market reversed; sharp drop in wheat¹²	Not specified in the source
Late Sep	Rouen −€4.50 to €234.50/t¹³	Following a weaker Euronext
Oct	Euronext sideways at €242–248/t⁸	Interest in EU wheat as Russian exports fall, against comfortable world stocks
19–26 Oct	Rouen −€17.50 in one week, to €225/t¹⁴	Better crop conditions in Eastern Europe¹⁵; a weak US market in milder weather¹⁶; buyers already covered¹⁷
4–5 Nov	Chicago at a near four-month low, then rebounds to ~$6/bushel⁴	IKAR cuts its Russian export forecast
Early Nov	Euronext around €223–228/t¹⁰	Weaker euro and Black Sea risks give some support